WhatsApp Channel Join Now
Telegram Group Join Now

Relevance: GS Paper III — Indian Economy, Agriculture, Water Resources, Food Security Source: The Hindu / IMD / PIB, July 2026

1 · What exactly happened?

India just experienced its fifth-driest June since 1901, recording a massive 40% drop in expected rainfall. The weather department (IMD) predicts July won’t be much better, falling into the “below-normal” category.
Why is this happening? The IMD points to a developing El Niño (warming of the Pacific Ocean, which disrupts rain) and a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (which means the Indian Ocean isn’t helping to bring extra rain). The Agriculture Minister has even warned of a “Super El Niño,” threatening the record crop production India achieved last year.

2 · Why Does a Bad Monsoon Hurt the Entire Economy?

While agriculture only makes up about 20% of India’s total economic output (GDP), it is the main source of income for almost half the workforce and 55% of the population. Therefore, a bad monsoon creates a domino effect that hits the whole country through three main channels.

Channel 1
Direct GDP Hit
If crops fail, agricultural output drops, pulling the entire country’s GDP down with it. A severe drought linked with El Niño can visibly slow down India’s overall economic growth.
Our Safety Net
Buffers in Place
Thankfully, India has massive grain stocks stored in FCI godowns. The government has also released huge subsidies (like the ₹41,533 crore fertiliser subsidy) to help farmers survive the shock.
Channel 2
Rural People Stop Buying
When crops fail, farmers lose money. If rural India stops buying motorcycles, tractors, and everyday goods, factories in the cities suffer, slowing down the whole business cycle.
Channel 3
Skyrocketing Food Prices
Less rain means fewer onions, tomatoes, and pulses. Prices in the market shoot up (inflation). When inflation is high, the RBI cannot lower interest rates to help businesses borrow money.

  • Sowing is already down: Because the soil is dry, farmers have planted 23% fewer Kharif crops (monsoon crops) compared to the same time last year.
  • Empty Dams: According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), water levels in India’s major reservoirs are drastically lower than last year. This threatens drinking water supplies and electricity generation.
  • Danger Zones: The government has identified 315 districts that are highly vulnerable to this poor monsoon. Out of these, 111 districts are in critical danger because they lack proper irrigation systems.
  • Global Pressures: Geopolitical conflicts are making fertilizers expensive. Furthermore, El Niño usually makes global food prices rise, meaning importing food to cover our shortages will cost India heavily.
  • The Export Problem: If we don’t grow enough food, the government might ban agricultural exports to keep local prices low. This will hurt our foreign trade earnings and widen the Current Account Deficit.

UPSC Prelims Quick Facts
El Niño The unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean. It disrupts global weather and typically causes weak monsoons and droughts in India.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) A temperature difference in the Indian Ocean. A Positive IOD brings good rain to India (cancelling El Niño’s bad effects), while a Negative IOD suppresses rain.
LPA (Long Period Average) The average rainfall recorded over a long period. IMD considers 96–104% of LPA as “Normal” rainfall. Below 90% is “Deficient”.
Kharif & Rabi Crops Kharif (rice, cotton) is planted during the monsoon. Rabi (wheat, mustard) is planted in winter. A bad monsoon hurts both.
Central Water Commission (CWC) The technical body under the Ministry of Jal Shakti that monitors how much water is stored in India’s major dams and reservoirs.
PMKSY Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana. A scheme to expand irrigation access so farmers aren’t totally dependent on rain.

MCQ Practice Question
Q. With reference to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon, consider the following statements:

  1. El Niño refers to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is generally associated with weaker rainfall over India.
  2. A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tends to suppress the southwest monsoon over India, while a neutral IOD boosts rainfall.
  3. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies rainfall between 90% and 96% of the Long Period Average as “below normal”.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only    (b) 1 and 3 only    (c) 2 and 3 only    (d) 1, 2 and 3

Answer: (b) 1 and 3 only

  • Statement 1 — Correct: El Niño is characterized by warmer Pacific waters, which disrupts wind patterns and usually leads to poor monsoon rains in India.
  • Statement 2 — Incorrect (the trap): It is the exact opposite! A positive IOD actually boosts the Indian monsoon, acting as a lifesaver during an El Niño year. A negative IOD suppresses rain.
  • Statement 3 — Correct: The IMD strictly defines 90-96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) as “Below Normal” rainfall.
Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation Course

Recent Posts

Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation BATCH
Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation Course

Start Yours at Ajmal IAS – with Mentorship StrategyDisciplineClarityResults that Drives Success

Your dream deserves this moment — begin it here.