India’s Driest Monsoon in a Decade — El Niño Strengthens as Indian Ocean Dipole Arrives Too Late

GS Paper III: Environment, Agriculture and Disaster Management | GS Paper I: Climate and Monsoon
Source: India Meteorological Department, The Hindu, Indian Express

The India Meteorological Department has revised its 2026 monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long-Period Average (LPA), placing it at the edge of drought territory. A strengthening El Niño and a delayed Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the key drivers.

With over half of India’s farmland dependent on rain-fed agriculture, this forecast has direct consequences for food security, inflation, and rural livelihoods.

1. Core Concepts Every Student Must Know

Long-Period Average (LPA)

The average rainfall over 50 years, updated every decade.

• Current baseline (1971–2020): 89 cm
• IMD classifies monsoons based on percentage of LPA.
• Below 90% is officially classified as Deficient rainfall.

IMD Official Monsoon Classification Scale

Key Numbers

2. Why is the Monsoon Weakening? — Four Drivers

El Niño — The Suppressor

Abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean weakens trade winds that carry moisture toward India.

• A moderate-to-strong El Niño is confirmed for 2026.
• Impact remains weak in June but peaks sharply in August and September, the most critical crop months.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — Too Late

A Positive Indian Ocean Dipole normally counterbalances El Niño and strengthens monsoon winds.

• In 2026, the IOD remains neutral through the peak monsoon season.
• It turns positive only after much of the damage has already occurred.

Spring Barrier — Why Forecasts Changed

Climate models in March–April have high uncertainty regarding El Niño strength.

Once May passed (the “Spring Barrier”), updated models showed a much stronger El Niño than previously estimated, forcing IMD to revise its forecast downward from 92% to 90% LPA.

Silver Lining — Buffers Exist

Two consecutive above-normal monsoons (2024 and 2025 averaging 108% LPA) have left reservoirs and food grain stocks in relatively healthy condition.

Since El Niño’s strongest effects are expected mainly in August, the June Kharif sowing season may avoid the worst impact.

3. What is at Risk? — Impact on India

Agricultural Distress

More than 50% of India’s net sown area remains rain-fed and lacks irrigation backup.

A deficient July–August rainfall period directly threatens:

• Paddy
• Pulses
• Oilseeds

Food Inflation

Crop shortfalls quickly translate into higher prices of vegetables, pulses, and cereals, affecting both urban and rural consumers.

Groundwater Depletion

Farmers increasingly rely on groundwater extraction to compensate for rainfall deficits, worsening India’s already stressed water tables.

Thermal Stress

Deficient rainfall raises temperatures during August, damaging crops during critical growth stages.

4. Farmer-Level Response — What Should Change?

Shift to Drought-Resistant Paddy

Promote short-duration varieties such as Sahbhagi Dhan.

• Matures faster
• Requires less water

Expand Shree Anna (Millets)

Encourage cultivation of:

• Ragi
• Jowar
• Bajra

These crops are drought-resistant, water-efficient, and nutritionally rich.

Direct Seeded Rice (DSR)

Adopt Direct Seeded Rice instead of traditional transplanting methods.

• Saves 20–30% irrigation water
• Reduces rainfall dependence

UPSC Value Box

5. Policy Response — Way Forward

1. Activate CRIDA Contingency Plans

The Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) prepares district-level drought plans.

• Pre-stock climate-resilient seeds
• Strengthen seed banks before sowing season

2. Prioritise Reservoir Water

• Give priority to drinking water
• Protect livestock requirements
• Restrict industrial allocations when necessary

3. Fast-Track Crop Insurance Claims

Under PMFBY, mid-season adversity clauses should be activated immediately so compensation reaches farmers before debt burdens worsen.

4. Use MGNREGA for Water Conservation

• Desilt village tanks
• Repair irrigation channels
• Construct micro-check dams

These activities should begin before peak drought conditions emerge.

UPSC Mains Practice Question (15 Marks, 250 Words)

India faces its driest monsoon forecast in a decade due to a strengthening El Niño. Examine the meteorological factors responsible and suggest measures to protect food security and agricultural livelihoods.

Keywords to Use

El Niño, Long-Period Average (LPA), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Spring Barrier, Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY), MGNREGA Reorientation, Shree Anna (Millets), CRIDA Contingency Plans.

Conclusion

India possesses the institutional mechanisms and agricultural technologies needed to manage a deficient monsoon. Success will depend on timely activation of schemes, proactive water conservation, and rapid support to farmers before rural distress intensifies.