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Relevance: GS-I (Climatology) | GS-III (Disaster Management) | Source: The Indian Express

The Context: Cyclone Arnab recently slammed into India’s east coast with winds up to 140 kmph, forcing over 1.8 lakh evacuations in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. What shocked meteorologists wasn’t just its explosive strength, but its strange path further south. The mastermind behind this shift? A strengthening El Niño.

1. Strange Behaviour: Explosive Growth & Stalling

Arnab broke standard weather rules at every stage of its journey:

  • Rapid Intensification: Starting as a weak low-pressure area on October 23, it exploded into a “very severe” cyclone within just 24 hours.
  • Refusing to Weaken: Normally, storms lose power immediately upon hitting land due to ground friction. Unusually, Arnab stalled near Narsapur and Yanam, holding onto its fierce intensity for six full hours after making landfall.
  • The Bay of Bengal Trap: Because the Bay is shaped like a funnel, enclosed on three sides, and has a shallow seabed near the coast, it naturally pushes massive storm surges deep inland.

2. How El Niño Altered the Path

  • Shifting Southward: Normally, Bay of Bengal storms curve north toward Odisha and West Bengal. However, during El Niño years (when the Pacific Ocean warms up abnormally), cyclones tend to form closer to the equator and strike further south—hitting Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu instead.
  • High-Octane Ocean Fuel: Unusually warm ocean waters (26°C or higher down to 100 metres) acted like rocket fuel, allowing Arnab to gather massive amounts of energy and move much faster than initial forecasts.

3. How Cyclones Get Their Names

  • The 62 kmph Rule: A storm is officially named by the New Delhi weather centre the moment wind speeds cross 62 kmph.
  • The 13-Nation List: Thirteen countries around the region take turns submitting names alphabetically. “Arnab” was proposed by Bangladesh. The next storm in line will be named “Murasu” (a Tamil word for drum), chosen by India.

Value Box: Key Weather & Ocean Concepts
ENSO & Niño 3.4 El Niño-Southern Oscillation has warm (El Niño) and cool (La Niña) phases. Scientists track the Niño 3.4 region in the Pacific (recently 2°C to 2.8°C above normal) to measure El Niño’s intensity and predict its global ripple effects.
INCOIS The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (under MoES) works with the IMD to study ocean floors and warn coastal towns about exact storm surge heights.
WMO/ESCAP Panel Started in 2004 with 8 nations and expanded to 13 in 2018 (adding West Asian nations like Iran and UAE) to manage standard cyclone names in the North Indian Ocean.

Practice MCQ

Q. Consider the following statements regarding tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean:

  1. During El Niño years, cyclones in the Bay of Bengal tend to form at lower latitudes, increasing the likelihood of landfall along the Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts.
  2. The Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) at New Delhi assigns a name to a storm only when sustained wind speeds cross 119 kmph.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 only     (b) 2 only     (c) Both 1 and 2     (d) Neither 1 nor 2

Answer: (a) 1 only
Hint: Statement 1 is correct; El Niño pushes cyclone formation closer to the equator, steering them toward Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Statement 2 is incorrect because storms are named as soon as wind speeds reach 62 kmph (the threshold for a cyclonic storm), whereas 119 kmph is the threshold for a “very severe” cyclone.

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