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Relevance: GS-II (Bilateral Relations, International Treaties); GS-III (Climate Change, Water Security) Source: IIT-Gandhinagar Report, July 2026

1 · What exactly happened?

A groundbreaking new study by IIT-Gandhinagar has proven that climate change has drastically reduced the amount of water in the Indian side of the Indus River basin.

Because nature has fundamentally changed since the famous Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was signed in 1960, the old rules are hurting India. Armed with this new scientific data, New Delhi is now strongly demanding that Pakistan renegotiate the 60-year-old treaty to reflect today’s climate realities.

2 · A Tale of Two River Basins

The 1960 treaty divided six rivers. India got full control of the three Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan got the three Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). However, the new 73-year data study reveals a highly unfair climate shift between the two sides.

India’s Share
The Drying East
India’s rivers are suffering. The region has seen a 20% drop in rainfall. Groundwater is depleting fast, and water flowing into our major dams (like the Pong Dam) has dropped by a massive 34%.
Pakistan’s Share
The Stable West
Pakistan’s rivers remain highly stable. Their rainfall hasn’t dropped significantly, their groundwater is healthy, and the water flowing into their giant dams (Tarbela and Mangla) remains full.
The Legal Right
Changing the Rules
Under International Law, there is a rule called Rebus Sic Stantibus. It means if the natural environment changes fundamentally, a country has the legal right to demand changes to an old treaty.
The Security Angle
Putting it “On Hold”
Water isn’t the only issue. Following recent terror attacks, India has put the treaty “in abeyance” (on hold). India refuses to follow the treaty blindly until Pakistan stops cross-border terrorism.

  • The Missing Factors: When the treaty was signed in 1960, nobody thought about explosive population growth, climate change, or the desperate need for clean hydroelectricity. India argues the old text is now completely outdated.
  • Saving our Water: To fight this severe water loss in the Northwest granary (Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan), the Indian government runs the Atal Bhujal Yojana, a scheme where local communities work together to save and manage groundwater.
  • The National Water Mission: This government mission actively targets improving water use efficiency across India by 20% to help combat the effects of climate change.

UPSC Prelims Quick Facts
Eastern Rivers (India) Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. India has unrestricted use of these waters.
Western Rivers (Pakistan) Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Allocated mostly to Pakistan, though India can use them for limited domestic and agricultural use.
Major Indian Dams Bhakra Dam (Sutlej River), Pong Dam (Beas River), and Thein/Ranjit Sagar Dam (Ravi River).
Rebus Sic Stantibus A legal doctrine under the Vienna Convention that allows a country to walk away from or change a treaty if fundamental circumstances (like the climate) have drastically changed.
Atal Bhujal Yojana A Central Sector Scheme designed to stop severe groundwater depletion in water-stressed states by involving local village communities.

MCQ Practice Question
Q. With reference to the Indus Waters Treaty and river basin management, consider the following statements:

  1. Under the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, the waters of the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers are allocated to India for unrestricted use.
  2. The legal doctrine of ‘Rebus Sic Stantibus’ allows a state to modify a treaty due to a fundamental and unforeseen change in circumstances.
  3. The Pong Dam, which has seen a massive drop in water inflows, is constructed across the Jhelum river.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only    (b) 2 and 3 only    (c) 1 and 3 only    (d) 1, 2 and 3

Answer: (a) 1 and 2 only

  • Statement 1 — Correct: The 1960 treaty explicitly gives India full control over the three Eastern Rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
  • Statement 2 — Correct: Enshrined in the Vienna Convention, this doctrine is India’s legal basis for wanting to change the treaty due to massive climate shifts.
  • Statement 3 — Incorrect (the trap): The Pong Dam is built across the Beas River (an Eastern river allocated to India), not the Jhelum river (which is a Western river allocated to Pakistan).
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