WhatsApp Channel Join Now
Telegram Group Join Now
Relevance: GS Paper I — Monsoon, El Niño; GS Paper III — Agriculture Source: IMD / PIB, July 2026

Below Normal Rain in July, Current Defici at 40%

1 · What happened

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that July 2026 will likely see less rain than usual across most of India. This is a big worry because July is the most crucial month for farmers planting their kharif (monsoon) crops like rice and pulses.

June 2026 had 39% less rain than usual, making it the fifth-driest June in India since 1901. The IMD expects some decent rain in the first week of July, but things are predicted to dry up in the second half of the month.

2 · Understanding “Normal” Rainfall

How does the IMD know if rain is “normal”? They compare today’s rainfall to a 50-year average (from 1971 to 2020), known as the Long Period Average (LPA). For July, the “normal” LPA is 280.4 mm of rain. This year, the IMD expects July’s rainfall to stay under 94% of that mark, putting it in the “below normal” category.

The Threat
El Niño is here
El Niño is a weather pattern that warms the Pacific Ocean. This shifts global wind patterns and typically pushes rain clouds away from India, weakening our monsoon.
The Impact
Farmers are struggling
Because the soil is too dry, Kharif crop planting is currently running 23% behind compared to last year. This could eventually impact food prices.
The Water Crisis
Reservoirs are drying up
High summer heat and low rainfall mean our dams and reservoirs aren’t filling up. This stresses drinking water supplies and makes it harder to generate hydroelectric power.
The Hope
It’s not over yet
A dry June doesn’t mean the whole season is ruined. Also, a different weather pattern called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) might turn positive later this year, which could actually bring more rain and cancel out El Niño’s effects.

  • Understanding IMD Grades: The IMD categorizes rainfall very strictly: Deficient (below 90% of LPA), Below Normal (90-96%), Normal (96-104%), Above Normal (104-110%), and Excess (above 110%).
  • History gives us hope: Since 1951, we have had 26 years where June was unusually dry. However, only 8 of those years actually ended up with a poor, below-normal monsoon season overall.

UPSC Prelims Quick Facts
Long Period Average (LPA) The 50-year average of rainfall (1971-2020) used as a benchmark to measure if a year is dry or wet.
El Niño An abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It usually causes droughts in India.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) A difference in sea temperatures across the Indian Ocean. A “Positive” IOD brings good rain to India and can fight off El Niño.
Walker Circulation A massive loop of wind moving across the Pacific. El Niño shifts this loop, which pulls rain clouds away from India.
IMD & CWC The IMD (under the Ministry of Earth Sciences) predicts weather. The Central Water Commission (under the Jal Shakti Ministry) monitors the water levels in our dams.

MCQ Practice
Q. Consider the following statements regarding the Indian monsoon:

  1. El Niño is the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which generally weakens the Indian monsoon.
  2. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) generally suppresses rainfall and causes droughts over India.
  3. The IMD classifies seasonal rainfall as “Normal” if it falls between 96% and 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only    (b) 2 and 3 only    (c) 1 and 3 only    (d) All of the above

Answer: (c) 1 and 3 only

  • Statement 1 is Correct: El Niño warms the Pacific and disrupts winds, usually resulting in less rain for India.
  • Statement 2 is Incorrect (UPSC Trap): A positive IOD is actually a good thing for India. It brings more rain and can even cancel out the negative effects of El Niño. A negative IOD is what causes droughts.
  • Statement 3 is Correct: The IMD defines “Normal” rainfall very specifically as being between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average (LPA).
Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation Course

Recent Posts

Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation BATCH
Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation Course

Start Yours at Ajmal IAS – with Mentorship StrategyDisciplineClarityResults that Drives Success

Your dream deserves this moment — begin it here.