WhatsApp Channel Join Now
Telegram Group Join Now
Relevance: GS-I Geophysical Phenomena · GS-III Agriculture & Water Resources Source: IMD data, June 2026

1 · What happened

The Southwest Monsoon — the seasonal rains that water most of India from June to September — reached Kerala around 4 June (a few days late) and then stalled. Its northward march lost momentum, leaving large parts of the country dry.

Between 4 and 15 June, India got only about 19 mm of rain against a normal of 54 mm — roughly a 64% shortfall for the period. Central, southern and eastern India are the worst hit, while only the northwest has seen surplus rain. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the full season to be below normal — about 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This threatens the all-important Kharif (monsoon-season) sowing.

2 · Why did it stall?

The key idea — ENSO. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a see-saw of ocean temperatures in the Pacific. Its warm phase, El Niño, tends to weaken the Indian monsoon (less rain). Its cool phase, La Niña, usually brings good rain. Right now conditions are weak La Niña-like but turning, and the IMD expects El Niño to develop later in the season — a warning sign.

The main threat
El Niño (ENSO warm phase)
Warming of the central and eastern Pacific that disturbs global winds and tends to dry out India’s monsoon. Expected to develop this season.
The missing helper
No positive IOD
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — warmer western Indian Ocean — can offset El Niño and boost rain. This year, no such cushion is expected.
The local block
Jet stream & MJO
A westerly jet-stream push and an unfavourable phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a moving belt of cloud activity near the equator — are suppressing cloud formation.
The cushion
Buffers in place
Reservoir storage and national seed and fertiliser stocks are adequate, buying time. The Centre has also rolled out crop contingency plans.

3 · Why it matters & the response

  • Food security: Central India grows key Kharif crops — soyabean, pulses, paddy and coarse cereals. Sowing failure can cut yields and push up food inflation (rising prices).
  • Rural stress: Over half of India’s net sown area has no assured irrigation, so a weak monsoon directly lowers rural incomes and demand.
  • Wider economy: Low reservoirs hurt the Rabi (winter) crop and hydro-power, and can force more spending on schemes like MGNREGA.

Government action: about 200 vulnerable districts have been placed under weekly monitoring, and states have been told to push drought-resilient crops like cotton and pulses in rain-starved areas.

UPSC Value Box
ENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation; ocean-temperature see-saw in the Pacific. El Niño = warm/dry for India; La Niña = cool/wet.
IOD Indian Ocean Dipole; a positive IOD aids the Indian monsoon and can offset El Niño.
MJO Madden–Julian Oscillation; an eastward-moving band of cloud activity that strengthens or weakens monsoon pulses.
LPA Long Period Average; IMD’s benchmark for “normal” rain — about 868 mm (1971–2020 base). 2026 forecast ≈ 92% of LPA.
Kharif / Rabi Kharif = monsoon-sown crops (paddy, soyabean); Rabi = winter crops (wheat, gram).
IMD India Meteorological Department; nodal forecasting body under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
ICAR-CRIDA Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture; designs district-level climate-smart plans.
PMKSY Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana; irrigation scheme — “Har Khet Ko Pani” & “Per Drop More Crop”.
PMFBY Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana; crop insurance against sowing/harvest failure.

MCQ Practice Question
Q. With reference to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon, consider the following statements:

  1. El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
  2. El Niño years are generally associated with above-normal rainfall during the Indian southwest monsoon.
  3. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can partly offset the weakening effect of El Niño on the Indian monsoon.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only    (b) 2 and 3 only    (c) 1 and 3 only    (d) 1, 2 and 3
Answer: (c) 1 and 3 only

  • Statement 1 — Correct: El Niño is the warming of central and eastern Pacific surface waters.
  • Statement 2 — Incorrect (the trap): It is the reverse. El Niño generally weakens the Indian monsoon, bringing below-normal rain; it is La Niña that usually favours good rainfall.
  • Statement 3 — Correct: A positive IOD warms the western Indian Ocean and can partly cancel out El Niño’s drying effect.
Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation Course

Recent Posts

Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation BATCH
Ajmal IAS APSC Foundation Course

Start Yours at Ajmal IAS – with Mentorship StrategyDisciplineClarityResults that Drives Success

Your dream deserves this moment — begin it here.