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Relevance: GS Paper 1 & 3 — Geography, Climate, Agriculture & Food Security Source: ECMWF, Australian BoM, IMD — June 2026

1 · What happened

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has confirmed the onset of an El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has also reported that sea temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have crossed the +0.5 °C threshold.

India is already feeling the effect. The 2026 southwest monsoon reached the Kerala coast on 4 June — three days late. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 35% chance of a deficient season.

2 · El Niño, La Niña & the Pacific “Heat Engine”

El Niño (Spanish for “little boy”) and La Niña are the two extreme phases of the natural temperature cycle of the tropical Pacific Ocean. They shift global wind, rainfall and temperature patterns — and strongly influence the Indian monsoon.

Baseline
Normal Pacific
Trade winds blow east-to-west, pushing warm surface water towards Asia and Australia. Off South America, cold, nutrient-rich water rises up — a process called upwelling.
Wet phase
La Niña (“little girl”)
Trade winds become stronger; warm water is pushed even further west. The central-east Pacific turns colder. India usually gets a stronger monsoon.
Counter-balance
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
A positive IOD (western Indian Ocean warmer than the east) can soften the effect of El Niño on Indian rainfall and may support late-season rains.
Dry phase
El Niño (“little boy”)
Trade winds weaken or reverse; warm water moves back towards the Americas. India usually faces a weaker monsoon, droughts and crop stress.

  • Jet stream shift: El Niño pushes the Pacific jet stream southward, bringing wetter winters to the southern United States and drier conditions in the north.
  • Why it hurts India: A weak monsoon means lower yields in rice, wheat and pulses, less water in reservoirs, lower hydroelectric output, and higher food inflation — which the RBI treats as an “upside inflation risk”.
  • Historical link: Past strong El Niño events have caused major droughts and famines globally, including in India.

UPSC Value Box
Niño 3.4 region A specific belt of the central equatorial Pacific. A sustained rise of +0.5 °C in sea surface temperatures here is the standard marker for declaring an El Niño.
Long Period Average (LPA) The 50-year average rainfall for India, used by the IMD as the yardstick for forecasting monsoon rainfall.
Upwelling The rising of cold, deep, nutrient-rich water to the ocean surface. It supports rich fisheries (e.g. off the coast of Peru).
India Meteorological Department (IMD) India’s nodal agency for weather and monsoon forecasts. Works under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) A specialised agency of the United Nations, based in Geneva. It coordinates global weather, climate and water-related observations.
PMKSY Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana — flagship scheme to expand irrigation coverage (“Har Khet Ko Pani”) and improve water-use efficiency.
PMFBY Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana — crop insurance scheme that protects farmers against yield losses from natural risks like drought, flood and pests.
Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa An IMD service that delivers district-level weather forecasts and farm advisories to farmers through SMS and apps.

MCQ Practice Question
Q. With reference to El Niño, La Niña and the Indian monsoon, consider the following statements:

  1. During an El Niño event, the Pacific trade winds weaken or reverse, and warm surface water shifts back towards the Americas.
  2. La Niña is generally associated with a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon in India.
  3. The Long Period Average (LPA) used by the IMD is based on rainfall data averaged over a 50-year period.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only    (b) 2 and 3 only    (c) 1 and 3 only    (d) 1, 2 and 3

Answer: (c) 1 and 3 only

  • Statement 1 — Correct: El Niño is marked by weaker or reversed trade winds and the eastward movement of warm Pacific surface water towards the Americas.
  • Statement 2 — Incorrect (the trap — reversed link): It is El Niño, not La Niña, that is linked with a weaker Indian monsoon. La Niña is generally linked with a stronger-than-normal monsoon.
  • Statement 3 — Correct: The IMD’s LPA is computed as the 50-year average of all-India southwest monsoon rainfall and serves as the benchmark for rainfall forecasts.

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