Relevance: GS I (Geography) & GS III (Environment) | Source: World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

1. What is the News?

Our Earth’s natural weather cycles are acting weirdly.

• The Problem: Because our oceans are heating up so fast, the old rules used by weather experts to predict El Niño and La Niña are failing.
• Global warming has completely changed what we used to call a “normal” ocean temperature, making future weather very hard to predict.

2. The Basic Concepts

To understand this for UPSC, you just need to know the basics of this cycle (called ENSO):

• El Niño (The Warming): This happens when the ocean waters in the eastern Pacific become unusually hot. It generally heats up the whole planet and often causes severe droughts in India.
• La Niña (The Cooling): This is the exact opposite. The ocean waters become cooler than average. This gives the planet a temporary cooling effect and usually brings good, heavy monsoon rains to India.
• The Rare ‘Triple Dip’: Normally, these two phases switch every few years. But recently (from 2020 to 2023), the Earth saw a highly unusual, continuous three-year-long La Niña.

3. The Hidden Danger: ‘Energy Imbalance’

This is a very important new concept for your exams:

• The Heat Blanket: Because humans burn so much coal and oil, greenhouse gases have formed a thick blanket around the Earth.
• What is the Imbalance? It means the Earth is now trapping much more heat from the Sun than it is throwing back out into space.
• The Illusion of Safety: Because of this massive trapped heat, even during a traditionally “cool” La Niña phase, the Earth continues to break high-temperature records. The La Niña cooling is simply hiding the real, scary speed of global warming.

4. Why Should India Care?

• Prediction Failure: Indian agriculture depends entirely on the Monsoon. Because the ocean’s “normal” temperature is now permanently hotter, scientists are finding it very hard to predict upcoming floods or droughts accurately. This leaves our farmers unprepared.

UPSC Value Box

With reference to global climate phenomena, consider the following statements:

1. La Niña is characterized by the unusual cooling of the surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
2. The Earth’s ‘Energy Imbalance’ occurs when the planet releases more heat into space than it receives from the sun.
3. A “Triple Dip” La Niña refers to the rare occurrence of three consecutive years of La Niña conditions.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 1 and 3 only

(c) 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Correct Answer: (b)