Syllabus: GS-I – Population Studies

Why in the News?

India has officially become the world’s most populous nation, with a median age of 28 years—one of the youngest globally. This has renewed focus on whether India can successfully utilise its demographic dividend or risk turning it into a demographic burden.

Understanding the Demographic Landscape

• India’s population growth is shaped by birth rates, death rates, and migration. Natural growth (birth minus deaths) and migration determine overall demographic change. 
• Historically, data for these trends comes primarily from the Census of India, conducted regularly since 1881.

Colonial-Era Trends (1901–1931)

• India witnessed high death rates (41–49 per 1,000), due to widespread disease, poor medical infrastructure and epidemics like cholera, plague and smallpox.
• Birth rates remained very high (46–51 per 1,000) because families compensated for high child mortality by having more children.

Post-Independence Improvements

• The death rate dropped sharply from 25 (1951) to 7.1 (2011) per 1,000—better than China and comparable to the USA.
• This improvement is attributed to better healthcare, vaccination, nutrition and disease control.

Key Indicators Shaping India’s Demographic Dividend

1. Mean Age of Marriage

Early marriage leads to higher fertility. Historically:

• India: 13 years (1901), 16 (1961), and 19.2 today
• Assam: 15 → 14 → 21.2
• Kerala: 18 → 17 → 25
  Assam and Kerala have shown early sociological advancement in delaying marriage.

2. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

TFR = Average children per woman.

• India: 5.9 (1901) → 3.96 (1991) → 1.9 (2023)
• Fertility variation across states:
  
  • High: Bihar (3), UP (3.2), Meghalaya (2.9)
  • Replacement or below: Tamil Nadu (1.6), Kerala (1.7), Karnataka (1.7), WB (1.6)

A TFR below 2.1 means population stabilisation and eventual decline.

What Is a Demographic Dividend?

Demographic dividend refers to the economic advantage arising from a high proportion of the working-age population compared to dependents.
India’s median age of 28 years positions it favourably compared to:

• Japan – 49.5
• China – 40+
• USA – 38

A young workforce can boost growth, innovation and productivity—if adequately skilled and employed.

Benefits of a Strong Demographic Dividend

• More workers → higher productivity and GDP.
• Greater savings rate due to lower dependency ratio.
• Rise in entrepreneurship and innovation capacity.
• Boost to manufacturing and services sectors.
• Higher tax base, more resources for welfare and infrastructure.

India is now the 4th largest economy in nominal GDP—behind only the US, China and Germany.

Challenges to Realising the Dividend

1. Jobless or Job-poor Growth: Agriculture is overcrowded and stagnant. Industry and services must absorb millions entering the workforce each year.

2. Regional Disparities: Population indicators vary widely:

• Kerala matches developed nations in maternal and infant health.
• Bihar, UP, MP still show high MMR, IMR, and TFR.

3. Health Challenges: High infant mortality and poor maternal healthcare weaken the workforce of the future.

4. Education and Skills Gap: Skill development programmes often lack quality and reach. Only a small fraction of the workforce is formally skilled.

5. Urbanisation Stress: Demand for housing, transport, sanitation and jobs is rising faster than infrastructure creation.

Government Initiatives Supporting Demographic Utilisation

• Skill India Mission
• National Education Policy
• National Health Mission
• Make in India, Digital India, and Startup India
• POSHAN Abhiyaan (nutrition)
• Labour law reforms

These are meant to improve employability, boost industries, and enhance health outcomes.

Conclusion

India’s demographic moment is historic but finite. While India’s young population is a powerful asset, it requires targeted investment in education, skills, healthcare, women empowerment, job creation and urban planning.
If not addressed urgently, the demographic dividend can turn into a demographic liability marked by unemployment, social unrest and economic stagnation.

India must act now, with coordinated policies that convert population strength into economic power.

Exam Hook –Mains Question

What is India’s demographic dividend? Discuss the opportunities it presents and the challenges India must overcome to fully realise its demographic potential. (250 words)

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