Relevance: GS3 – Climate Change & Disaster Management; GS2 – Global Climate Governance
Source: The Hindu; IPCC & WWA frameworks

As climate-induced extreme events rise in frequency and intensity, countries are increasingly asking whether specific disasters can be linked to specific greenhouse gas emitters.
This emerging field — climate attribution science — is reshaping global debates on climate justice, liability, insurance, and Loss & Damage under the UNFCCC.

What is Attribution Science? 

Attribution science studies how much climate change contributed to the intensity or likelihood of a particular event—such as a heatwave, cyclone, or flood.

Types of Attribution

Tools used: climate models, counter-factual modelling, probability analysis, paleoclimate records, and real-time satellite/IMD data.

Why Linking Disasters to Emitters is Difficult

Despite rapid progress, attribution faces key limitations:

Scientific Challenges

• Multiple drivers influence disasters: topography, sea-surface temperatures, land-use.
  
• Data gaps: India lacks high-resolution long-term datasets for many regions.
  
• Cyclones & floods are harder to attribute than heatwaves (which show clearer statistical signals).
  

Legal Challenges

• Courts require direct causal links, whereas attribution works in probabilities.
  
• Liability for historical emitters is still evolving and not recognized uniformly.
  

Political Challenges

• Attribution can determine who pays in Loss & Damage negotiations — a highly sensitive issue.
  
• Developed countries often resist liability frameworks.
  

Why Attribution Still Matters

Even with limitations, attribution science is crucial for developing nations:

1. Climate Finance & Loss and Damage

Attribution helps quantify the role of emissions, strengthening demands under the Loss & Damage Fund (CoP28 onwards).

2. Disaster Preparedness

States can use attribution to design heat action plans, cyclone zoning, and infrastructure codes.

3. Insurance & Risk Pricing

Insurance companies use attribution to evaluate climate-related risk profiles.

4. Legal Accountability

Cases like Lliuya vs RWE (Germany) show courts beginning to use attribution evidence.

Way Forward

• Build dedicated attribution research centres in IMD, IITs & IISERs.
  
• Strengthen automatic weather stations and high-resolution satellite monitoring.
  
• Integrate attribution into State Disaster Management Plans (SDMPs).
  
• Use attribution evidence to negotiate fair climate finance.
  

One-line Wrap: Attribution science cannot assign blame with certainty, but it is becoming a powerful tool for holding major emitters accountable and strengthening climate justice.

Mains Qn: “How can attribution science strengthen climate justice and Loss & Damage claims for developing nations? Discuss its scientific and ethical challenges in the Indian context.”