Relevance: GS3 (Environment & Disaster Management); GS2 (Global Climate Governance)
Source: The Hindu; IPCC & WWA references

As climate-fuelled extreme events intensify—cyclones, floods, heatwaves—countries are increasingly asking: can specific disasters be scientifically linked to greenhouse gas emitters?
This science, called climate attribution, is becoming central to loss-and-damage claims, insurance, and climate justice debates.

What is Attribution Science? 

Attribution science examines whether and to what extent climate change increased the intensity or likelihood of a specific event, compared to a pre-industrial world.

Two Types of Attribution

This field uses climate models, counterfactual modelling, probability analysis, paleoclimate data, and real-time observations.

Why Linking Disasters to Emitters is Difficult

Despite scientific advances, several challenges persist:

1. Complex causation

• Disasters have multiple drivers: geography, land use, local infrastructure, natural variability.
  
• Climate is a probability-based system, not deterministic.
  

2. Uneven data availability

• Developed nations have reliable data.
  
• Developing nations often lack high-resolution weather records.
  

3. Attribution harder for cyclones & floods

Heatwaves are easiest to attribute.
But for monsoon failures, floods, or cyclones—natural variability interferes more strongly, making attribution uncertain.

4. Legal hurdles

Courts ask: “Can we identify a specific emitter as responsible for a specific disaster?”
Science rarely offers 100% certainty, only probability ranges.

5. Political implications

Assigning blame may reshape:

• climate finance
  
• carbon liability
  
• loss & damage negotiations under UNFCCC
  

Why Attribution Still Matters

Despite limitations, attribution science is becoming a key tool in climate justice.

Applications Emerging Globally

• Insurance industry uses attribution to evaluate risks.
  
• Courts have cited attribution studies in cases (e.g., Germany’s Lliuya vs RWE case).
  
• Loss & Damage Fund reliance on attribution is growing, especially post-CoP28.
  
• Helps governments frame adaptation and disaster preparedness.
  

India-Specific Relevance

India is among the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations.

Recent Indian examples where attribution studies helped

• Heatwave likelihood increased by 30x (WWA study).
  
• 2022 Pakistan floods—monsoon changes partly linked to emissions from top fossil fuel companies.
  
• Cyclone Amphan showed enhanced intensity due to warm Bay of Bengal.
  

For India, attribution matters because:

• It strengthens claims for climate finance.
  
• Helps design state-level climate adaptation plans.
  
• Provides scientific basis for urban planning and disaster codes.
  

Emerging Global Framework

Way Forward

• Invest in high-resolution climate data and automatic weather stations.
  
• Build national attribution capability within IMD, IITs, and IISERs.
  
• Integrate attribution into disaster insurance schemes.
  
• Use attribution evidence in climate negotiations to demand fair financing.
  

Key Takeaways

• Attribution science links specific extreme events to climate change using rigorous probability modelling.
  
• Despite uncertainties, it is becoming vital for climate policy, insurance, and legal responsibility.
  
• India must strengthen its scientific and institutional capacity to leverage attribution for climate justice.
  

One-line wrap:
Attribution science cannot assign blame with certainty, but it provides powerful evidence to hold major emitters accountable for climate-driven losses.

UPSC Mains Question:
Discuss the role of attribution science in strengthening climate justice and loss-and-damage claims for developing nations like India. What are the key scientific and ethical challenges involved?