Relevance: GS III (Environment, Conservation & Climate Change) | Source: Environmental Science Editorials

1. The Core Projection: A Counter-Intuitive Finding

A new scientific modelling study suggests a paradox: if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, India’s forests could theoretically store nearly twice as much carbon by 2100 compared to today.

2. The Science: Why is Carbon Storage Increasing?

This projected growth is driven by two interacting ecological phenomena:

• The Carbon Fertilization Effect: Plants require carbon dioxide for photosynthesis. Higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere act as a “fertilizer,” enhancing the rate of photosynthesis and plant growth.
• Rising Precipitation: Climate models project increased rainfall across much of India due to global warming, providing the extra soil moisture needed for this accelerated tree growth.

3. The Geographical Shift (Winners vs. Laggards)

• The “Gainers” (Dry Regions): The largest expansion of carbon storage is projected in the arid and semi-arid margins of India (e.g., Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Madhya Pradesh).
• The “Laggards” (Biodiversity Hotspots): Ironically, ecologically rich zones like the Western Ghats and the Himalayas will see minimal relative growth. They are experiencing “ecological saturation” (the forests are already too dense to expand further).

4. The Administrative Warning: Not a “Net Good”

Relying passively on this projection is a dangerous policy gamble. The mathematical models assume ideal conditions and have massive blind spots. They do not account for destructive, real-world forces intensified by climate change, such as severe droughts, massive wildfires, pest outbreaks, and rampant human-led deforestation, which can instantly wipe out these theoretical carbon gains.

The “UPSC Trap” (Exam Alert)

• The “NDC Target” Trap: An exam statement might exaggerate India’s climate goals: “India has committed to creating an additional carbon sink of 10 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2030.” Incorrect. Under the Paris Agreement, India’s actual NDC target is to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

UPSC Value Box: Strategic Concepts

Key Concept / Body	Administrative Meaning for Exam
Carbon Fertilization Effect	The scientific phenomenon where elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 increase the rate of photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in plants.
India’s Forestry NDC	India’s official pledge under the Paris Agreement to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
Forest Survey of India (FSI)	The nodal organization under the MoEFCC responsible for conducting surveys and publishing the biennial India State of Forest Report (ISFR).

With reference to India’s forest conservation efforts and ecological phenomena, consider the following statements:

1. The “Carbon Fertilization Effect” refers to the increased rate of plant photosynthesis driven by higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
2. According to India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the government aims to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030.
3. The Forest Survey of India (FSI), which publishes the biennial India State of Forest Report, functions as an attached office under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

(a) 1 and 2 only

(b) 2 and 3 only

(c) 1 and 3 only

(d) 1, 2 and 3

Correct Answer: (a)