Relevance (UPSC): GS-III – Environment & Ecology (Climate change, Mitigation), GS-II – International Relations (Paris Agreement)

Introduction

In 2024, the global mean carbon-dioxide (CO₂) concentration reached ~423.9 parts per million (ppm)—about 3.5 ppm higher than 2023, the steepest year-on-year jump in the instrumental record since 1957. It also made 2024 the warmest year on record, with the global average temperature ~1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. The World Meteorological Organization highlights that the carbon budget is being burned faster, while natural “brakes” weaken.

What is rising, and how fast?

• CO₂ now equals -152% of pre-industrial level (≈278 ppm).
• Long-lived: CO₂ lingers for hundreds of years; half remains after a century.
• Other greenhouse gases rose more modestly: methane (CH₄) ≈ 1942 ppb; nitrous oxide (N₂O) ≈ 338 ppb.
• Warming contribution: CO₂ ≈ 66%, CH₄ ≈ 16%, N₂O ≈ 6%; rest from other gases and aerosols.
• Big jump in 2024 due to forest fires, reduced ocean/land uptake, El Niño weakening sinks, positive feedback loop as warming reduces CO₂ absorption by oceans.

Why CO₂ dominates the risk

• Radiative forcing: CH₄ is more potent molecule-for-molecule, but CO₂ is far more abundant and persistent.
• Inertia: Even if emissions plateau, concentrations continue rising until net-zero emissions.
• Budget math: Remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is small; high emissions now “eat” future leeway.

India’s lens: exposure and responsibility

• Exposure: Heat-stress days, monsoon variability, glacier loss, urban floods, coastal risk; combined with high population density.
• Responsibility: Per-capita emissions below global average, but total emissions rising. India committed to net-zero by 2070, 45% cumulative emissions-intensity reduction by 2030 (from 2005), and 50% non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030.

Four levers to reduce emissions

1) Power and industry (big stacks)

• Scale solar + wind + storage, round-the-clock renewable contracts, pumped hydro, flexible gas; accelerate coal retrofits and retirements.
• Green the grid: transmission corridors, storage procurement, market reforms (day-ahead + real-time) to value flexibility.
• Industrial decarbonisation: green hydrogen (fertiliser, refining, steel), electrified heat, carbon capture where alternatives not viable.

2) Transport and cities (daily energy)

• Electrify two-wheelers, buses, last-mile freight; blend bio-CNG, mandate truck fuel-efficiency standards.
• Transit-oriented urban design: buses, metros, cycling—cut CO₂ and local pollution.

3) Land and food (living sinks)

• Restore degraded forests and mangroves; protect grasslands and wetlands.
• Low-emissions agriculture: precision fertiliser, alternate wetting and drying for paddy, manure management, climate-smart extension.

4) Markets, money and rules (enabling spine)

• Operationalise Carbon Credit Trading Scheme under amended Energy Conservation Act with measurement, reporting, verification, no double counting, community safeguards.
• Green finance: sovereign/municipal green bonds for clean power, bus fleets, drains, cooling; de-risk storage and transmission through guarantees.
• Demand-side efficiency: super-efficient appliances, building energy codes, passive/district cooling pilots.

India’s policy dashboard

• Nationally Determined Contribution (updated 2022): 50% non-fossil electricity by 2030; economy-wide emissions-intensity reduction.
• Panchamrit targets: net-zero by 2070.
• PAT (Perform, Achieve, Trade), Energy Conservation Building Code, FAME for electric mobility, Ujjwala/UJALA, PM-KUSUM.
• National Green Hydrogen Mission, renewables & storage bids, National Adaptation Fund, sectoral cooling/action plans.

What citizens and firms can do

• Cool smarter: efficient ACs, passive design, community cooling.
• Move cleaner: public transport first, electric two-wheelers, logistics consolidation.
• Buy better: star-rated appliances, rooftop solar, product footprint disclosure.
• Protect local sinks: wetlands, mangroves, urban trees.

Key terms

• ppm/ppb: parts per million/billion, atmospheric concentrations.
• Radiative forcing: extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases.
• Carbon budget: allowable future CO₂ emissions for a temperature goal.
• Sink: process removing CO₂ (ocean, forests).
• Positive feedback: warming reduces sinks → more warming.
• Net-zero: emissions balanced by removals.

Exam hook

Frame answer as: Data signal → Why CO₂ dominates → India’s exposure & commitments → Four levers (power/industry, transport/cities, land/food, markets/money) → Policy dashboard & key terms. Quote 423.9 ppm, 3.5 ppm jump, 1.55°C warming.

Key takeaways

• CO₂ concentration at record high, rising faster; human activity + weakening sinks.
• CO₂ longevity makes near-term action decisive; power, industry, cities must bend emissions this decade.
• India’s pathway: clean power + efficient demand + resilient land use, financed via credible markets & green capital with community safeguards.

Using in the Mains Exam

Link global science (WMO, carbon budget) → Indian policy (NDC, hydrogen, PAT, transport electrification) → Governance instruments (carbon market integrity, green bonds). Highlight co-benefits: health, jobs, energy security.

UPSC Mains question

“Rising CO₂ concentrations reflect both persistent emissions and weakening sinks. Discuss how India’s mitigation strategy should integrate power-sector reform, industrial decarbonisation, urban transport, and land-use restoration. Propose financing and market mechanisms that protect communities while raising ambition.”

UPSC Prelims question

Consider the following statements:

1. CO₂ remains in the atmosphere far longer, on average, than methane and nitrous oxide.
2. A rise in global mean temperature can reduce oceanic CO₂ uptake, creating a positive feedback.
3. The Nationally Determined Contribution binds India to absolute emission cuts by 2030.

Answer: 1 and 2 only.

One-line wrap

The CO₂ dial has jumped again—bend power, transport and land systems now, or the climate will do the bending for us.